Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 24.240281 28.804144 34.507014 42.359444 53.243296 68.399073 92.355831
2024-12-15 19.286928 24.517948 31.823686 43.393284 62.677175 97.025024 174.996278
2024-12-22 15.858451 20.918592 28.445354 41.422677 65.883904 118.411493 285.993287
2024-12-29 13.957683 18.964495 26.806584 41.353798 72.071639 152.092932 550.388075
2025-01-05 12.213305 16.897839 24.474863 39.210656 72.839213 174.219988 956.399531
2025-01-12 10.700132 14.965809 22.000908 36.089348 69.887765 182.620894 1465.612718
2025-01-19 9.572826 13.513949 20.123674 33.704310 67.784993 192.986780 2495.398243
2025-01-26 9.757849 14.214157 22.130651 39.950501 92.987630 391.313243 NaN
2025-02-02 9.470671 14.068366 22.540565 42.806638 111.086385 681.141909 NaN
2025-02-09 8.706658 13.001863 20.995975 40.445395 108.393322 757.923507 NaN
2025-02-16 8.431911 12.780585 21.107307 42.388678 125.378857 1423.436668 NaN
2025-02-23 8.034156 12.293981 20.601178 42.534648 134.891931 2407.953550 NaN
2025-03-02 7.626535 11.785826 20.053623 42.654017 146.359728 5312.028684 NaN
2025-03-09 7.311222 11.424011 19.778088 43.549393 164.721748 29899.119313 NaN
2025-03-16 6.840799 10.725113 18.667770 41.553689 162.278679 87999.216173 NaN
2025-03-23 6.538916 10.327807 18.189452 41.482962 174.432046 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 6.141548 9.715524 17.154556 39.329731 168.142060 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 5.716624 9.026029 15.888217 36.194434 151.666379 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 5.364442 8.462984 14.877432 33.799119 140.428832 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 5.527159 8.922901 16.284866 40.072956 218.154119 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 5.477409 8.951594 16.673971 42.942505 279.359016 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 5.195750 8.486000 15.790203 40.570140 261.356653 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 5.119046 8.439896 15.956311 42.522553 320.761902 NaN NaN